|EUC (Euro Cash): Last week's close was below weekly support, which is bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 3rd consecutive week, which means it is downgraded to trend run down.
This week's trend indicator point is 1.3605. It will be upgraded to neutral this week if it closes above here.
Weekly support is 1.3028-1.3045. A weekly close below 1.3028 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.
Weekly resistance is 1.3535-1.3618. A weekly close above 1.3618 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.
Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at 1.3235-1.3253 (it closed there, so it is vulnerable to breaking now), 1.2815-1.2816 and 1.2217-1.2232.
A new bearish crossover zone just formed at 1.3532-1.3535. Another remains in effect at 1.5322-1.5458.
This now starts the 25th week of the 21-34 week primary cycle following the 1.1875 low June 7. It appears it will also start the 6th week of a major cycle. As stated last week, "It this starts the 5th week of the third and final 7-11 week major cycle, then the market is bearish. Last week's low was only a trading cycle low, and this rally will end any day now, followed by a further decline to the primary and major trough due in 2-6 weeks, with a price target of 1.3078 ± .0284. A move below the low of last Tuesday, November 16, at 1.3446 would support this viewpoint." All that happened. So now we expect another 1-5 weeks down to the primary cycle trough, perhaps in to the December 7-8 three-star critical reversal zone. We have another downside price target now to 1.2951 ± .0157.
Last week's report also stated, "But failure to close above weekly resistance and the weekly trend indicator point (1.3808-1.3836) supports the idea that this market will fall further, probably into the Dec 8-9 critical reversal zone, or even Dec 18 period. A lot may depend upon how the Euro zone will handle the bailout of Ireland, and maybe even Greece and Portugal as well."
Strategy: Position traders took healthy profits on shorts the previous week, and will prepare to buy on a primary cycle trough due December 6-20, perhaps below to the 1.3000 area.
Aggressive traders barely failed to get short "on a rally above 1.3800 this week." You may look to sell short if prices rally back to the bearish crossover zone, with a stop-loss on a close above weekly resistance. Cancel if prices fall below 1.3205 first. Prepare to go long the following two weeks, per position traders' strategy.
Euro Dec (EUZ): Weekly support is 1.2949-1.3033. Resistance is 1.3535-1.3618. The weekly trend indicator point is 1.3602. The difference between cash and futures is .0002 to futures.
JYC (Dollar/Yen Cash): Last week's high was two ticks above weekly resistance and the low was two ticks above weekly support, which made for great weekly trading. The close was into weekly resistance, which is mostly bullish again. And the close was also above the weekly trend indicator point for the 3rd consecutive week, which means it is upgraded to a trend run up.
This week's trend indicator point is 82.93. A weekly close below here this week will downgrade it back to neutral.
Weekly support is 83.18-83.39. A weekly close below 83.18 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.
Weekly resistance is 84.60-84.81. A weekly close above 84.81 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.
Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 110.92-111.75, 116.25-117.09, and 120.34-120.58.
This starts the 4th week of a newer 26-40 week primary cycle following the 15-year low at 80.22 on Monday, November 1. As stated last week, "If this is a new primary cycle, our first price target for the crest of a new primary cycle will be 87.60 ± 1.75. That would be a bearish target. If the longer-term cycle lows also just bottomed on November 1, then the crest could be much higher for this primary cycle. But for now, that is what we look for…. To be bullish, the market should not close under weekly support, and certainly not below the extension of the former downward trendline, which comes in this week around 81.25-81.50. If it does, we have to be on alert for another test of 80.00." So far, it is holding. My guess is that we continue higher into the Dec 7-8 critical reversal zone and then pull back. However if instead we decline into then, and still hold above the extension of that former downward trendline, we would buy more then,
Strategy: Position traders may remain long with a stop-loss on a close below 80.00. You may take profits one 1/3 of these longs if prices get to weekly resistance, but can't close above there.
Aggressive traders are also long with a stop-loss on a close below 80.00. However, positions traders have now taken profits on half those positions and will look to buy back if prices fall to 81.25-82.00.
Japanese Yen Dec (JYZ): Weekly support is 1.1801-1.1827. Weekly resistance is 1.2007-1.2032. The weekly trend indicator point is at 1.2062.
Euro/Yen Spread - Cash: Last week's high was above weekly resistance and the close was below weekly support, which is very bearish. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point after being above it last week, which means it remains neutral.
This week's trend indicator point is 1.1284. It will remain neutral this week unless it closes sharply higher or lower.
Weekly support is 109.02-109.45. A weekly close below 109.02 is bearish, and a trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.
Weekly resistance is 113.68-114.11. A weekly close above 114.11 is bullish, but a trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.
A bullish crossover zone remains in effect at 108.30-108.87.
Bearish crossover zones remain in effect at 140.72-140.96 and 150.58-153.25.
This now starts the 14th week of the 21-34 week primary cycle following the 105.41 low of Aug 24 critical reversal zone. It also starts the 5th week of the second 7-11 week major cycle following the 1.1149 low of October 29. There is a possibility it may be forming an 11-17 week half-primary cycle now as well. Either way, it now looks like the market is falling, perhaps into our Dec 8-9 critical reversal zone, which would make it more of a half-primary cycle trough. The price target for that type of cycle would be 106.95-111.15. We are in that range now, but the critical reversal period is still another week away.
As stated two weeks ago, "However, … if this is the 3rd week of an older major cycle, then the fact that last week's low took out the starting point three weeks ago is not a good sign., It means this market is bearish, and will be so for the next 4-8 weeks. Thus, we have to watch what happens this week very closely. Taking out last week's low would be bearish. If last week's low holds, it will also create a bullish Lorusso 5-point reversal pattern. That, of course, would be very bullish." It has now done that, which does not bode well for this spread or for the Euro currency.
Strategy: Position traders are still long with a stop-loss on a close below 1.1102, after having taken profits on 1/3 of these long positions recently. Let's look to also exit if prices rally back to 1.1250 and stand aside.
Aggressive traders are also long with the same stop-loss and exit.
Swiss Franc Dec (SFZ): Last week's low was into weekly support and the close was between support and resistance, which is neutral but with a bullish bias. And the close was below the weekly trend indicator point for the 3rd consecutive week, which means it is downgraded to trend run down.
This week's trend indicator point is 1.0139. A close above here this week will upgrade it back to neutral.
Weekly support is .9870-.9896. A weekly close below .9870 is bearish. A trade below followed by a close back above is a bullish trigger.
Weekly resistance is 1.0080-1.0106. A weekly close above 1.0106 is bullish. A trade above followed by a close back below is a bearish trigger.
Bullish crossover zones remain in effect at .9217-.9277 and .8770-.8864.
This starts the 26th week of the 21-34 week primary cycle following the .8596 low of June 1. It also starts the 4th week of the third 7-11 week major cycle following the 1.0031 low of Nov 1. As stated last week, "Or the Venus direct is not going to produce a reversal, and instead the Swiss Franc just keeps falling to its primary cycle bottom, due in 4-8 weeks, with a price target down to .9584 ± .0233. It closed bearish, so unless it can close above weekly resistance now, the chart pattern is bearish. The only hope, really, is that Venus stationary last Thursday, which was the low. It has to hold by the middle of this week, or else it is coming down further." It didn't hold and debt problems arose again in the Euro zone, taking down the Euro as well as the Swiss Franc. We should be heading down to the primary cycle low now, into the price zone given above. There is a chance it could be completed in the forthcoming Dec 8-9 critical reversal zone, or maybe even later in the month.
Strategy: Position traders are stopped out of longs and will now wait for signs of a primary bottom to buy.
Aggressive traders will do the same.
Using this information properly: Support may represent favorable risk/reward places to buy if the trend is up. If prices trade below support, then have a close back above it, it is considered a bullish "trigger", and oftentimes represents a good buy signal. Resistance may represent favorable risk/reward places to go short if the trend is down. If prices trade above it, then have a weekly close back below, it is considered a bearish "trigger, and oftentimes a good sell signal.
MMA comments and trade recommendations are primarily for traders of commodity and futures contracts. They are provided mainly with "speculators" in mind. By its very nature, "speculation" means "willing to take risk of loss." Speculators" must be willing to accept the fact that they are going to have several losses, many more than say "investors". That is why they are "speculators." Speculators are typically right about 50 ± 10% of the time. The way "speculators" become profitable is not so much by high percentage of winning trades, but by controlling amount of loss on any given trade, so the average trade on winners is considerably more than the average trade on losing trades. MMA's comments can be of value to both speculators and investors. MMA's trade recommendations will be of potential value only to speculators. Those who take these trades need to be willing to adjust stop-losses, and even the trade itself, as the week unfolds, and dependent upon technical factors that will arise with each day's trading. There is no guarantee as to future accuracy or profitability. Each trader and reader trades at his or her own risk, and neither the author nor publisher assume any responsibility whatsoever for anyone's financial or commodity markets decisions. Futures or options trading are considered high risk.